US Winter Forecast 2024-2025: Will La Niña shape New York's snowy outlook?

The U.S. is likely to experience La Niña this winter, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA). La Niña, which occurs when ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific cool down, has a 74% chance of emerging this season. The National Weather Service notes that La Niña typically happens every three to five years and can last for varying durations. This contrasts with last year's El Niño conditions, where ocean temperatures were warmer than usual.

As La Niña develops, it could affect weather patterns across the country. The shift from El Niño to La Niña could alter storm tracks, jet stream activity, and rainfall patterns. According to the National Weather Service, "This period usually happens every 3 to 5 years, but can also pop up on occasion."

NOAA’s Fall Forecast for New York
NOAA’s outlook for New York this fall highlights a likelihood of above-average temperatures. The National Weather Service forecasts a 40% to 50% chance of warmer-than-usual conditions across the state, continuing from October through December.

Upstate New York has a 33% to 40% chance of experiencing more precipitation than normal during the same period, while the New York City metro area and Long Island are expected to see "equal chances" of normal rainfall, meaning there is no clear trend indicating wetter or drier conditions in these regions.

Winter Forecast: Warmer Temperatures but Uncertainty on Snow
For the upcoming winter, NOAA predicts that New York will experience a 40% to 50% chance of above-average temperatures from December through February. This trend applies to much of the state, including western, central, and eastern regions like the Hudson Valley and the Adirondacks.

The National Weather Service adds that central and western New York could see higher precipitation levels, with a 40% to 50% chance of above-average rainfall or snowfall. However, the New York City metro area and Long Island are again expected to have normal precipitation levels, with "equal chances" for wetter or drier conditions.

The forecast, however, does not specify whether this increased precipitation will take the form of snow, rain, or ice. Meteorologists warn that snowstorms depend on the strength and track of individual winter storms, which cannot be predicted more than a week in advance. Therefore, it remains unclear how much snow New York may receive this winter.

Farmer’s Almanac Prediction for Winter 2024-2025
In contrast to NOAA's detailed forecasts, the Farmer’s Almanac provides a broader outlook for the winter season. The publication predicts a season filled with "rapid-fire storms" that will bring both rain and snow, with little time between weather events.

The Almanac's forecast covers the Northeast, including New York, and suggests the state will experience above-normal winter precipitation. The coldest temperatures are expected in the Great Lakes region, but New York will also face frequent rain and snow, particularly in mountainous areas and interior regions.

Coastal regions near the Interstate 95 corridor, including parts of New York City, are more likely to experience rain and sleet, while snow will be more common in upstate areas.

La Niña’s Influence on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Though La Niña is strongly predicted for this winter, it has yet to fully emerge as of October, despite initial forecasts expecting its return by late summer. La Niña conditions tend to promote hurricane activity in the Atlantic by reducing vertical wind shear, which can tear apart developing storms. As a result, La Niña often leads to more intense tropical storms and hurricanes.

Matthew Rosencrans, a forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, explained that the delay in La Niña's arrival has been beneficial for regions prone to hurricanes. He stated, "It doesn't look like we're going to have a real intense November at this point." This shift provides some relief for the Gulf Coast and other regions that are vulnerable to hurricanes, particularly after a September and early October filled with tropical activity.

Although La Niña still has about a 60% chance of returning before the end of November, forecasters believe that if it does emerge, it will be "weak" and likely short-lived. Without a strong La Niña, the 2024 hurricane season is unlikely to reach the 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes initially predicted by NOAA in May.

According to Rosencrans, "If anything, we're likely to get to the lower end of our forecasts... We're definitely not going to continue the torrid pace we're at." He added that while the season may see three more named storms, it will not be as active as initially feared.

Challenges in Predicting La Niña and ENSO Cycles
Forecasting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle remains a complex task for meteorologists. The ENSO cycle alternates between warmer (El Niño) and cooler (La Niña) phases, but predicting these changes months in advance is difficult due to a variety of factors, including long-term climate patterns and short-term weather anomalies. Rosencrans emphasized that early forecasts for La Niña, particularly before the hurricane season, can be challenging: “That’s one of the big research challenges, is how do we fix that spring barrier?”

Despite these challenges, NOAA continues to monitor La Niña's potential effects on weather patterns, both in New York and across the U.S. If La Niña does return later in the season, it could influence not only the remainder of the hurricane season but also the winter weather across the country.