Explained: Why India Need 3-0 Win VS New Zealand Despite Holding Top Spot To Reach WTC 2025 Final

India will face New Zealand in the first Test of a three-match Test series from Wednesday (October 16) at the iconic M Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru in what will also mark the start of the final home series for the Rohit Sharma-led side in the 2023-25 World Test Championship (WTC) final cycle.As things stand, India are favourites to make a third consecutive final. The two-time runners up are in first spot on the table with a stunning win percentage of 74.24%. Second-placed Australia are far behind as things stand at 62.50. India started their campaign with a 1-0 victory in a two-match series against West Indies before drawing against South Africa 1-1. This year, they have played seven test at home and won six of them against England and Bangladesh respectively.WTC 2023-25 Table

India Need Perfect Series Against New Zealand Despite their brilliant run so far, India have room for error in the three Tests against New Zealand. Such is the format of the WTC that rather than the series played, it is the amount of matches played that count more. India still have to play eight Test matches out of which five will be a big challenge to conquer as they will be played against Australia away from home. With India and Australia playing five Tests againt each other, the 2023 finalist cannot take things easy as both of them can take points away from each other. This opens up a window of oppertunity for both Sri Lanka and South Africa. Sri Lanka have four matches left (2 away to South Africa, 2 home to Australia) and wins in all four can see them finish with a win percentage of 69.23%. On the other hand, the Proteas have six matches left (2 away to Bangladesh, 2 home to Sri Lanka, 2 home to Pakistan) which are relatively easy on paper. South Africa are favourites to win all six and can easily reach a maximum of 69.44%. If either of that scenario happens, India will need to win atleast five Tests to stay above them and Australia in the table. Infact, if Australia win four Tests against India and both against Sri Lanka, they will finish at 71.05. Hence, India will need to hope that they atleast win one match and draw another to qualify in the Border Gavaskar Trophy against Australia. If the Rohit-led side do not manage to win all three Tests against New Zealand, it will leave them with a scenario where they cannot afford to lose more than 2 matches Down Under. Otherwise, they will be dependent on other results going their way. Anything less than five wins in eight matches will mean India finish with lesser than 69% in the final table.It is worth noting that overrate penalties will play a role in the final calculation but that is hard to predict before any match starts.